URC Revenge Mission Unpacked

As part of our role as the official data and consulting partner of the United Rugby Championship (URC), our team will be getting together with Oval Insights, over the coming season, to break down some of the most exciting trends in the competition. Because we recognise the power of data insights on the pitch as well as in the boardroom…

As the final whistle blew, exhausted Irish players appeared to sink into the Saint Denis turf. Roughly 84 minutes of titanic effort between two of the top teams at the Rugby World Cup had passed. Ireland, the number one ranked team in the world and pre-tournament favourites to many, were out of the World Cup.

Five months prior, many of those same Irish players had sunk to the ground again – this time however, celebrating a momentous victory against the DHL Stormers in the URC Grand Final.

As Munster and DHL Stormers prepare to face each other for the first time since that incredible encounter in Cape Town, we at Elixirr wanted to assess what the effect of World Cup duty might be on this crucial match-up.

Would returning Irish players provide a much-needed boost to Munster or might the DHL Stormers, despite missing several superstars, find themselves at an advantage with fresh legs.

Munster – The superstars return

Munster have been buoyed in recent weeks by the return of several of their world cup stars to training and to the pitch. Although RWC winner RG Snyman remains out, key players including Tadhg Beirne, Conor Murray, and Peter O’Mahony are all in line to make their URC3 debut this week.

Just how much did they put on the line for their country?

With over 300 minutes played in the WC, Munster will be hoping that key players such as Tadhg Beirne and Peter O’Mahony can replicate the usual quality of performances. 

That’s nothing to say of the emotional toll that must be felt by Munster’s Irish internationals. Following their defeat by New Zealand, club captain O’Mahony described the Irish dressing room as “probably the toughest [he’s] been in to be honest”.

Their return to club rugby will be one of the stories to watch this weekend.

Benetton – an Italian renaissance

World cup demands appear not to have affected Benetton however.

Despite fielding a squad comprised of 17 internationals, the Italian side have started URC3 on an absolute tear. Undefeated (3 wins, 1 draw) and sitting 1 point behind the league leaders, Benetton have been able to rely on the reintroduction of key Italian internationals to bolster their squad.

The return of national and club captain Michele Lamaro to the starting line-up has been an undoubted boost, but he’s not alone. In recent weeks, the Benetton pack has welcomed back several seasoned internationals, including Sebastian Negri, Simone Ferrari, and the Cannone brothers (Lorenzo and Niccolò), all of whom saw significant action at the World Cup. In fact, last round saw Benetton starting six members of the same pack that started Italy’s final group stage.

The performances of these returning players appear not to have been affected by their experiences in France. Despite playing an average of 230 minutes at the WC between them, four of those six are already producing higher average performance ratings than in last year’s competition, and across the Benetton team performances ratings are up on average.

*Minimum of 2 appearances in URC3

Benetton’s success, and the contributions of their international players in enabling it, suggests that returning quality can outweigh any World Cup fatigue.

DHL Stormers – difficult boots to fill?

Last years runners-up, the DHL Stormers, have had a slow start to the season, with their brightest stars having only just gotten home from touring the William Web Ellis trophy around the country.

When head coach John Dobson was asked about the team’s most recent loss to Benetton, he stressed that their reliance on “X factor” players has an inherent risk if the flashy plays aren’t pulled off. The return of Manie Libbok is already expected to reinvigorate the Stormers attack.

Until the return of their Springbok superstars, the Cape Town side will be hoping that their replacements can make a mark in the meantime. However, last week, the growing pains of a new set piece team missing several key internationals and fielding several new faces was on full display, squandering three line-outs inside Benetton’s 22 within last 20 minutes of the game. In a game of such fine margins, those errors can prove to be the difference between victory and defeat.

Munster vs Stormers – a brand new rivalry

As the Cape Town natives in the office insist, champions aren’t crowned in November*.

Even without their superstars, the DHL Stormers have plenty of time to turn their slow start around, starting with this weekend’s battle against their Irish rivals. No wins from their last three encounters have made this a one-sided rivalry so far, and Stormers will be anxious to right the ship.

Meanwhile, Munster will be hoping a boost from their returning players will be exactly what is needed to improve their own middling start (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). The best players elevate the performances of those around them and, as we are seeing with Benetton, the return of the World Cup players can have a tangible effect on team results.

Will Munster repeat their Grand Final victory and make it 4 wins from 4 against Stormers? or will a challenge like this be exactly what it takes to for the Cape Town side’s players to rise to the occasion and own the moment? This weekend will be an excellent pulse check on two of the biggest teams in the tournament.

*they are keen to remind everyone that they are crowned in late October, every four years…

Around the League

However, even in the absence of these international stars (with Irish and South African players only now starting to return), it is clear that the highest performing teams have benefited from their non-international players stepping up to the plate and delivering.

We analysed the performance of players who are playing in positions that have been impacted by a World Cup related absence and plotted the improvement in their average match rating (calculated by Oval Insights) from last season against their team’s performance to assess whether there was a link.

*Minimum of 3 performances in both URC2 and URC3.

This demonstrates that the teams who have had a slow start are those that are most likely to benefit from their international stars returning.

However, the teams who are performing the best are, on trend, seeing their players improve their average match performance despite these absences. In contrast, there is minimal correlation between the teams whose players are not impacted by a World Cup related absence in their position group and their overall performance.

This demonstrates that even though teams like Benetton have benefited substantially from the return of their international stars – the best teams are able to adapt to changing personnel and extenuating circumstances to maintain the excellent and competitive rugby we expect from the URC.

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