Let’s compare COVID-19 in the USA and the UK. Using the R0 Proxy values from our dashboard, by and large US states are seeing slow decreases in R0 Proxy values suggesting a slow decrease in case rates. It’s notable when analysing this data that those states that have had the strictest lockdowns aren’t necessarily the states that have the lowest R0 Proxy value or the best handle on COVID-19; or rather said in reverse, those states that haven’t had strict lockdowns are by no means the states suffering the most with COVID-19.

Dashboard: https://www.elixirr.com/2020/09/covid-19-business-the-economy/

Our proxy is an estimate of viral transmission based on the last four days of COVID-19 cases divided by the previous four days of COVID-19 cases. It helps us to identify the directional trends of case rates either increasing (>1), decreasing (<1) or remaining the same (=1). 

Take a look at the way each of the states has approached the pandemic here:

New York: New York state has had a strict lockdown; indoor dining resumed in New York City on the 12th February, with more restrictions due to be eased through March.

Texas: Texas has not had a strict lockdown, with all COVID-19 restrictions including mandatory mask-wearing due to be lifted on the 10th March.

Illinois: Illinois has taken a localised approach to COVID-19, targeting hard-hit areas with restrictions. In January measures were gradually eased, with the final measures being lifted in February. 

Florida: There has been no major lockdown in Florida.

California: California has endured a strict lockdown, with a stay-at-home order issued in December and then lifted on the 25th January. California remained in restrictive conditions throughout February, with some measures being relaxed in March. 

Florida and Texas serve as examples of states that have not had strict lockdowns. These are also two states that are not topping the list of fatalities from COVID-19 in the US.

In the list above, Florida and Texas serve as examples of states that have not had strict lockdowns; their R0-Proxy value on 4th March of 0.89 and 0.92 is close to or in some cases lower than the states here that have endured strict lockdowns (New York: 0.97; Illinois: 0.91; California: 0.91). Florida and Texas are also two states that are not topping the list of fatalities from COVID-19 in the US. It’s clear here that lockdown and the heavy restrictions we’re currently enduring in the UK aren’t always the answer to managing COVID-19; look to the major cities of Kansas City, Miami and Dallas who did not impose major lockdowns. Equally, this isn’t a blanket rule that decrees that all states with no restrictions have dealt with COVID-19 better.

Whilst their case load is comparatively higher, Florida and Texas have managed the virus to a similar degree as the states who imposed stricter lockdowns. Looking back to 4th January, Florida and Texas were experiencing 374 and 360 cases per-100k people respectively. Fast-forward to 4thMarch, their figures are 150 and 146, a 60% and 59% decrease. Compare this to California and Illinois, who after lockdowns have seen an 88% decrease and 72% decrease in cases respectively since the 4th January. The states that had more severe lockdowns did see larger drops in case load, but equally the states that had less extensive measures also managed to push cases down significantly.

Does the comparison between the UK and the US’s approach to COVID-19 not highlight the need for a more regional approach in the UK, rather than the application of a blanket lockdown for all?

Compare this to the situation we face in the UK. Our R0 Proxy value is the lowest in this list of states at 0.76, and we have the lowest cases per-100k at 61, an 87% decrease since 4th January; yet we are still in lockdown. Our vaccine rollout is world-leading, with 21 million jabs administered to date. The weather is warming up, encouraging people to socialise outdoors rather than inside. Cases are falling, reaching levels we saw in September. Does this comparison with the US not highlight the need of a more regional approach, rather than the application of a blanket lockdown for all?