The UK hit 100,000 deaths from COVID-19 this week, a devastating statistic.

The UK’s chosen strategy to tackle the pandemic has been a repeated cycle of lockdowns, but at what cost? We don’t even know if lockdown actually works, namely because no rigorous cost-benefit analysis has been undertaken; no one seems prepared to debate or question whether it is the right strategy for the UK. 

Take a look at this video of weekly excess deaths in the UK: lockdown does not effect the figures! (Press play in the top left corner of the dashboard below.) Data source here.

This, accompanied by the facts below, reveals the stark reality of lockdown and the loss of life it cases, highlighting why debate on this issue is essential.

Cancer & strokes

In October, Macmillan published a study revealing that the UK has 50,000 fewer cancer diagnosis compared to last year. This number could reach 100,000 by October 2021. In August, urgent referral statistics were 11% below 2019 levels. As the months continue, the ever-growing diagnosis backlog grows; it would take 20 months to work through this backlog if activity increased to 10% above pre-pandemic levels. 22% of cancer patients have also seen delays to their treatment or care, and between March and July there was a 39% drop in 7 key cancer diagnostic tests (3.2 million fewer tests compared to 2019). These are just the figures for cancer. A September study found that 29% of people who had suffered a stroke did not seek emergency medical assistance due to fear of COVID-19. Thousands of stroke patients have also been left with avoidable, life-altering disabilities due to COVID-related disruptions to treatment, such as surgery or physiotherapy.

As the months continue, the ever-growing diagnosis backlog grows; it would take 20 months to work through this backlog if activity increased to 10% above pre-pandemic levels.

Lockdown has had a devastating effect on healthcare, with many people too afraid and even discouraged from attending appointments or going to see their GP, and treatment cancelled due to a prioritisation of COVID-19 care and the policy of staying at home.

Education 

Children have missed out on the majority of in-person schooling during the pandemic, with two sets of GCSEs and A-Levels now being cancelled. In November, when schools were open, 22% of secondary school children (900,000 students) were not attending school due to COVID-related reasons. However, only 0.2% of those students were confirmed cases, meaning that those children were staying at home for no reason! Fast-forward to today where schools are again closed, and this week Johnson announced that schools will not reopen before 8th March. Further, not all children have access to the technology for online learning, or a good working environment at home.

Students – both at school and university – are missing out on essential portions of their education. Education is the most powerful aid to social mobility, and by pursuing lockdown we are simply embedding social inequality. As the demographic least vulnerable to the virus, lockdown simply does them an injustice.

Mental health 

The mental health impact of lockdown is concerning. Rates of suicidal thoughts have particularly increased in young adults, prescriptions for sleeping pills for under-18s rose by 30% compared to two years ago between March-June 2020, and one of the largest private eating disorder services in the UK saw a 71% rise in admissions in September compared to 2019.

We will be living the consequences of lockdown far longer than COVID-19. Faced with these facts, can we really confidently say that it is the best approach?

The mental health picture is similarly worrying in adults. A study published in December found increases in feelings of loneliness, unhappiness and inability to cope with COVID-related stress during lockdown. Poor mental health in men is already a large problem in the UK, with suicide as the highest cause of death in men aged under 35. The Samaritan charity group have highlighted that poorer middle-class men are most at risk of suicide during the pandemic, with 1/3 of the 7,000 calls they receive a day relating directly to COVID-19.

With 1.72 million people currently unemployed and the economy under increasing strain, what will the long-term mental health effects of lockdown be?

Home abuse

Lockdown traps victims of abuse at home with their abusers, unable to seek refuge. There has been a 7% increase in domestic abuse cases during the pandemic (compared to 2019), but if that figure seems small it is because it is hiding a key issue; that domestic abuse cases are almost certainly increasing but are going unreported by victims. Reports of child abuse images online increased by almost 50% during lockdown. Further, calls to the NSPCC child welfare hotline have increased by 50%. 

This evidence shows the stark reality of lockdown. It halts diagnosis and care for diseases we know how to treat, entrenches social inequality, and paralyses the vulnerable. We will be living the consequences of lockdown far longer than COVID-19. Faced with these facts, can we really confidently say that it is the best approach?